Bitcoin’s Regulatory Milestone: CFTC Greenlights Crypto Prediction Markets

In a landmark decision that signals growing institutional acceptance of cryptocurrency markets, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has approved Bitnomial Clearinghouse LLC to clear fully collateralized swaps. This regulatory authorization enables Bitnomial's parent company to expand into prediction markets specifically focused on cryptocurrency industry events and macroeconomic data. As a Chicago-based regulated digital asset derivatives exchange, Bitnomial will now extend clearing services to other platforms, creating new infrastructure for crypto-based financial instruments. This development represents a significant step toward mainstream financial integration for digital assets, particularly Bitcoin. By establishing regulated prediction markets tied to crypto events, institutional and retail investors gain sophisticated tools to hedge positions and speculate on industry outcomes. The timing of this approval—December 2025—coincides with Bitcoin's continued evolution beyond pure currency applications toward becoming a foundational asset class within structured financial products. The CFTC's decision reflects regulatory confidence in cryptocurrency market maturity and oversight mechanisms. Bitnomial's existing status as a regulated exchange provided the credibility needed for this expansion, demonstrating how compliance frameworks can enable innovation rather than stifle it. These prediction markets will likely increase market efficiency by aggregating collective intelligence about crypto industry developments, potentially reducing information asymmetry that has historically characterized digital asset markets. For Bitcoin specifically, this creates additional venues for price discovery and risk management. Prediction markets focusing on regulatory decisions, technological upgrades, adoption metrics, and macroeconomic factors affecting cryptocurrency will provide valuable leading indicators for Bitcoin's price trajectory. The fully collateralized nature of these swaps ensures counterparty risk mitigation—a crucial consideration for institutional participation. This regulatory milestone may accelerate Bitcoin's integration with traditional finance by creating bridges between crypto-native platforms and conventional clearing systems. As prediction markets generate data about expected future events, they could influence Bitcoin's volatility patterns and correlation with other asset classes. The expansion of regulated crypto derivatives through established institutions like Bitnomial represents another step toward the financialization of Bitcoin, potentially increasing its attractiveness to conservative investors who require structured products within regulated frameworks.

CFTC Approves Bitnomial to Launch Crypto Prediction Markets

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has granted Bitnomial Clearinghouse LLC approval to clear fully collateralized swaps, enabling its parent company to expand into prediction markets. The Chicago-based firm, already a regulated digital asset derivatives exchange, will now offer clearing services to other platforms.

Bitnomial's prediction markets will focus on crypto industry events and macroeconomic data, complementing its existing BTC and crypto derivatives products. Traders gain exposure to token price movements and economic outcomes through these contracts.

The CFTC's decision diversifies Bitnomial's product suite beyond perpetuals, futures, options, and Leveraged spot trading. Its clearinghouse supports cryptocurrency-based margin and settlement, creating direct digital asset utility for approved products.

Bitcoin On-Chain Metrics Signal Prolonged Bearish Phase, MVRV Model Points to Delayed Recovery

Bitcoin's struggle to reclaim higher price levels has intensified market fears, with on-chain data now suggesting a deeper bear phase may be underway. The flagship cryptocurrency has repeatedly failed to break key resistance levels, trading sideways with diminishing momentum as investor sentiment turns increasingly cautious.

Analyst Axel Adler's latest assessment reveals concerning structural indicators: weakening demand, persistent sell pressure, and deteriorating liquidity across Bitcoin markets. These factors historically precede extended corrective periods, with the MVRV Z-Score particularly flashing bearish signals.

Market fragility extends beyond spot prices. Derivatives positioning shows declining conviction, stablecoin flows indicate risk aversion, and long-term holders appear hesitant to accumulate at current levels. Such confluence of negative factors suggests volatility may escalate before establishing a sustainable bottom.

Crypto Unrealized Losses Surge to $350 Billion Amid Market Downturn

The cryptocurrency market is grappling with $350 billion in unrealized losses, according to on-chain data from Glassnode. bitcoin alone accounts for $85 billion of this figure, reflecting the severe impact of recent bearish price action.

Unrealized losses measure the gap between an asset's purchase price and current value when held rather than sold. The metric spiked as major cryptocurrencies retreated from their peaks, with Bitcoin's dominance underscoring its outsized influence on market sentiment.

Glassnode's analysis tracks each token's last transaction price against spot values. Coins trading below their cost basis contribute to the growing deficit. Parallel data shows unrealized profits shrinking as support levels are tested across exchanges.

Silver Surpasses Bitcoin and Amazon in Market Valuation as Investors Flee Risk

Silver's market capitalization reached $3.437 trillion this week, eclipsing both Amazon ($2.418 trillion) and Bitcoin ($1.803 trillion). The commodity hit a record $64.64 per ounce on Friday, extending its 2025 rally as capital rotates from volatile assets into precious metals.

Investors are retreating from cryptocurrencies amid economic uncertainty, with Bitcoin failing to react to the Fed's latest 25-basis-point rate cut. The crypto market remains stagnant while silver and gold continue attracting safe-haven demand.

Market analysts attribute the divergence to macroeconomic headwinds. 'When growth fears dominate, hard assets historically outperform speculative tech and crypto plays,' noted Metals Focus analyst James Steel. The trend may reverse in 2026 if risk appetite returns.

Itaú Recommends 1%-3% Bitcoin Allocation as Diversification Tool

Brazilian banking giant Itaú has published research advocating a 1%-3% portfolio allocation to Bitcoin, framing it as a diversification asset rather than a Core holding. The study highlights Bitcoin's low correlation with traditional asset classes like equities and fixed income, noting its unique behavior as a global, decentralized asset.

Strategist Renato Eid's report acknowledges Bitcoin's volatility but argues its structural differences from local markets create hedging value. The analysis cites Bitcoin's 2025 performance in Brazil, where currency fluctuations amplified both gains and losses during periods when BTC traded between $80,000 and $125,000.

Bitcoin Miners Pivot to Renewable Energy as Hash Price Declines

Texas emerges as a global hub for Bitcoin mining, leveraging its deregulated power market and renewable resources. Mining firms increasingly participate in demand response programs, trading operational flexibility for grid credits during peak periods.

Partnerships like Sangha-TotalEnergies exemplify the sector's shift toward sustainable infrastructure. The 20MW solar-powered facility in Ector County combines mining expertise with energy firm reliability, using retail electricity as backup during solar downtime.

Innovation accelerates elsewhere: Phoenix Group's 30MW hydro-powered Ethiopia operation and Canaan's AI-driven rig optimization reflect an industry adapting to squeezed margins. With Bitcoin's price down 40% to ~$8K, miners face existential pressure to cut costs through renewable integration.